The Democratic People's Republic of North Korea: A Study in Diplomatic Insanity

Hi Blogfans!

First, I'd like to apologise for my all too long and unannounced hiatus I'm aware (acutely) that this small corner of the glorious information superhighway is read by very few, but there were those of you that consumed my material gladly. I had some health problems and several family issues to deal with throughout last summer and kind of lost my desire to write anything. However that desire has grown once more of late and thus here we are again. I can't promise regular updates because my bouts of inspiration are haphazard in nature, the profound annoyance and frustration I require in order to put my thoughts to paper is not as regular a feature in my life as it once was but... Hopefully this is the start of a new wave, we shall have to see.

For now please sit back, relax and enjoy the journey through political lunacy we are about to undertake.

Many Thanks

Wheelchairman2

As those of you who follow the news may be aware, the Democratic People's Republic of North Korea, (DPRK) more commonly known to western audiences simply as 'North Korea' conducted its third and thus far largest, underground nuclear test this month. Not great news for anyone, including its own (and only) major diplomatic and economic ally in the world, the People's Republic of China. Why? Well therein lies the question, for an easy introduction to the ins and outs of nuclear strategy and security I highly recommend one of my very early posts 'A Tale of two Nations Part II'. That deals with the broad concerns surrounding the proliferation of nuclear weapons on a global scale, the issues i'll be tackling here are far more regional, but with potentially great worldwide repercussions. 

 First a brief history of our subject, the delightful, prosperous, glorious, powerful, globally respected and feared, Democratic People's Republic of North Korea - the last shining bastion of Stalinist ideals, peace and fairness for all in a world full of bourgeois corruption, poverty, war, disease, hunger,  fallible political leaders and above all -the nefarious influence of the great enemy of the Juche idea and puppeteer of all evil in the world AMERICA!! Not so in the great fatherland of North Korea! No! Tremble in fear citizens of lesser nations for their leaders are god kings whose every decision is essentially divine, they bow to no nation large or small, tributes flood in from both friend and enemy alike (more on that later) All hail the Eternal President Kim Il Sung, all hail the Great General and Dear Leader Kim Jong Il and all hail Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un! A great person born of heaven identical to his father and respected comrade!

Sorry about that - as overwrought as that may have seemed that's pretty much the message constantly churned out by the DPRK in true cold war style. The North never really grew out of that phase, as to why that is? Pretty simple really, World War II. Occupied by the Soviets and the Allies post WWII, Korea was divided much like Germany. Only it was divided along a north-south divide known as the 38th parallel. Free and fair elections were supposed to be held in 1948 but, tragically predictably this failed to happen on the northern side of the border. Thus leading to the establishment of two separate nations much like East and West Germany. however unlike Germany Korea was not seen as strategically important and thus did not suffer the fate of a shared capital. There were and still are - two, Pyongyang in the communist North and Seoul in the cuddly capitalist and 'nominally democratic' south. (Bit dictator-y at the time but just like pre-arab spring Egypt U.S. friendly dictator-y.) This led to a series of nasty border clashes and eventually blew up into a full blown war between the two nations and their respective supporters. There were a few things that are particularly noteworthy about this war. One, thanks the Soviet boycotting of the Security council (and the PRC not yet being a member yet) support of the south was U.N. mandated and the allied nations actually fought under a U.N. banner. Two despite not being an official participant the Korean war is the only armed conflict wherein Soviet (particularly Russian) forces did directly engage American forces as many Soviet 'advisors' were attached to and embedded in North Korean units. Soviet participation however was mostly limited to air combat and the provision of supplies. China plowed in during the latter stages after American victories began to threaten their border security and the whole thing just got worse. Regardless it was an extremely bloody conflict fought by nations only just recovering from the most deadly war ever fought by man. Somewhat inevitably it ground itself into a violent stalemate and an Armistice was signed in 1953. 

It's here the problems begin to start. There was a huge military buildup on both sides of the border and the DPRK essentially became a vassal state of the USSR. for the next 4 decades the 38th parallel remained as one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the world and was, alongside the Rhine, one of NATO's biggest security concerns of the Cold War. Had the superpower conflict gone hot Korea would most definitely have been a major theatre. But that's all over now right? The Soviet Union is gone, the Russians left Germany in '93 the Chinese became more friendly with us in the wake of the Sino-Soviet border clashes in the sixties and diplomatic efforts by Kissinger and Nixon in the seventies right? Right? Shouldn't be a problem anymore! Well no it is i'm afraid, not only is it a problem, it's one of the biggest problems facing the international community in a post-cold war world. North Korea did suffer terribly from the collapse of the USSR. The cessation of the military and economic aid upon which it had come to rely stopped. Famine throughout the 1990s killed hundreds of thousands and the DPRK's sluggish economy sputtered and died. Luckily North Korean propaganda and indoctrination is second to none, a great amount of blame for their domestic ills was laid at the feet of their opponents in true authoritarian style, after all, the Juche system is perfect and the rest of the world simply fears us thus they do all in their power to destroy us! Of course 'the rest of the world' is mostly limited to the United States, her allies and it's 'puppet' the South. 

On and on this goes - for a great many decades the Kim Dynasty have espoused this message to reinforce their 'military first' policy ( recent estimates claim that around 30% of their meagre GDP goes on defence expenditure. In contrast to this the United States - the nation with the largest military budget on earth, accounting for around 45% of all defence expenditures worldwide, uses about 4% of its GDP. South Korea spends around 2.5% of its GDP on such things.) Despite this insane level of spending the North Korean military continues to decline in quality and capability. For decades the threat of Soviet or Chinese assistance in the event of armed hostilities breaking out again held the south and its western allies in check no one wanted to risk potential nuclear war over Korea. With the Russian threat all but gone and the Chinese position being complicated at best - this has made things very difficult for the North. Occasionally there would be border clashes or exchanges of fire recent incidents such as the sinking of the South Korean warship ROKS Cheonan and the exchange of shellfire after Northern bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island in 2010 are just two examples of continued volatility and hostility in the region. But the international community was less and less impressed by these actions and grew more hostile. 

Why does North Korea behave like this? Easy, they want stuff - food mostly. Collective farming has never worked and they can't feed their own people by themselves and naturally they can't afford to pay for imports, aid is their only option. Of course food aid is most often targeted by international sanctions which leads to more aggressive behavior in an attempt to bully the world out of them which... leads to more sanctions. Initially about half a decade or so ago the north promised to give up their nuclear program  in exchange for more American food and fuel aid, (explained to the population as tributes for not starting shit on the peninsula) but that didn't work out, so now - in the face of growing international hostility coupled with a crumbling military infrastructure a nuke is the north's only real bargaining chip. 

This has done little to endear the north even to its allies, China is growing ever more furious at Pyongyang's antics with each passing week, for them the wayward buffer state is little more than an embarrassment at the moment, but should they attain workable ICBM or even IRBM technology (Inter Continental/Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile) then Pyongyang's demented masters could become a genuine threat to the Chinese eastern seaboard (where the vast majority of Chinese cities and heavy industry is located.) China has been attempting to create a desire for economic and social reform in the DPRK along Chinese lines for years unfortunately there is a great deal of resistance to this in the upper echelons of power as even a slightly more open society could spell the end of the Kim dynasty. There is a very real possibility therefore that the state China once relied on for security could in fact become a major problem in the near future. China really doesn't want to have to deal with this right now, their economic growth has slowed from around 10% a year to about 7.8% their labour force is shrinking due to an ageing population, a housing bubble crisis could potentially cause massive damage to the economy and to top it all off, China is already embroiled in something of a diplomatic crisis over the ownership of the Senkaku/Daioyu islands with its more west friendly neighbour Japan. But conversely if China were to intervene, it could stand them in very good stead. While a Chinese led military intervention is unlikely - there are several reasons as to why it would in fact be beneficial to all parties (except the DPRK leadership of course.)

1. Cooperation with regional and world powers in this situation would give China some serious diplomatic weight should it be successful. Frankly it could dine out on such an event for decades if it brings long term stability.

2. Cooperation with Japan in the event of a shooting war with the North may cause Japan to give concessions to China regarding access to the gas and oil field off the disputed Senkaku/Daioyu Islands (which is what the ownership dispute is really about) as a Nuclear armed DPRK would be a severe threat to Japanese security also.

3. The Chinese armed forces are currently undergoing a massive modernisation effort, but severely lack operational experience - a Chinese led effort would be a good test of the armed force's capabilities, especially with new equipment and techniques designed for service abroad. Additionally (if somewhat callously) success would likely serve as a stark warning to any potential future adversaries.

I have no doubt that similar arguments are being made in Beijing right now but diplomatically it's a very sticky situation. Only time will tell of the outcome but it is worthy of note that any Chinese led intervention would be a boon for the world at large - but potentially an even bigger one for a nation looking to assert itself as a relative newcomer to the world stage. The DPRK would do well to remember that.  

Thanks for reading

Wheelchairman2