Turkey's whoopsie.

Hey readers! Long time, sorry again.

So... I've been compelled to write by the events of the past few days. As you might have read, because it's been all over the news, Turkish fighter jets shot down a Russian combat aircraft in what they claim was their airspace. A claim furiously disputed by both the Russian military authorities and the surviving pilot.

Wait, surviving pilot?

Yeah... The air force of a NATO member just killed a Russian airman. 'Oh boy' you might think, 'that ain't good'. Well guess what? You'd be bang on the money. It's not good. For anyone. At all. Oh also a Russian marine died in the rescue effort so that's great. In all seriousness though, RIP Oleg Peshkov and Alexander Pozynych, we're not at war with your country. Yet.

So the situation in Syria is a goddamn mess right now as i've covered in previous posts, there's 2 dozen actors on the ground with differing ideologies and goals scattered all about the shattered shell of what was once a vaguely functional nation, I won't go into who's who or where the blame lies right now because hell that's complicated even for me. But besides the bloody (literally unfortunately) mess on the ground we also have some rather crowded air space.

The Americans are bombing Syria - namely ISIS/ISIL/IS/Daesh (whatever your preferred name for them is) targets, so is , Australia, Bahrain, Canada, France, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates with the UK just on the cusp of joining in, although we're already stuck in over Iraq along with the other chaps as well as Denmark, the Netherlands and Germany too. This is known as 'Combined Task Force - Operation Inherent Resolve'.

 Then there's Russia, who unlike everyone else is clinging onto Bashir Al-Assad for thinly veiled geo-political and strategic reasons. Not that I particularly blame them, Russia has had a long history of Relations with Syria and has enjoyed close ties with the Assad family for decades, plus their naval base in Tartus is Russia's only foothold in the Mediterranian both a real and symbolic reminder of Russian military power. Real in the sense that yes it does exist, symbolic in the sense that it is what remains of the former Soviet Union's once formidable forward basing capability. In the face of what it sees as NATO/US encroachment on its back yard Russia is unwilling to let go of this last thorn in the side of NATO naval dominance in the region.

So what the hell happened?

Well put simply one of these:

A pair of Turkish Air Force F-16s

Shot down one of these:

Su-24s in flight

I'm not going to upload a picture of the thing going down in flames but it wasn't pretty. This isn't the first time Russian aircraft have violated Turkish airspace in recent years, Syrian aircraft did it a lot at the start of this whole business too, it happens. It shouldn't but it does. Its unclear as to whether or not the aircraft was actually over Turkish airspace or not at this point, Turkey vehmently maintians that it was, Russia is arguing until its blue in the face that it wasn't. Even more worrying are the claims by the surviving pilot that he recieved no warning from the Turkish pilots before being shot down again this is something that is disputed by the Turkish authorities. NATO has come out as saying that it believes Turkey's version of events but I wonder how far that rhetoric is carried on behind closed doors. Frankly Turkey has been a little too twitchy of late and these are the consequences of that. This is the first time that a Soviet/Russian aircraft has been downed by a NATO power in fifty years. Am I worried? A little yes.

Now Russia has outright stated that all future strike missions will have a dedicated fighter escorts and they have deployed a destroyer nearby in a dedicated air defence role, they've also warned of dire consequences for Russo-Turkish relations - an understandable reacation given the circumstances.

Let me be clear I am in no way a supporter of Russian foriegn or defence policy, to my mind their recent actions in Donbass, Crimea, Georgia and Syria have been distasteful to say the least, understandable from a Russian perspective perhaps, but distasteful. However the waters are too muddy for me to decry Russian actions in this particular case as things stand. The Turkish are certainly not blameless, I feel that the shooting down of this aircraft was needlessly agressive, noted I was not in the air at the time and I am just a spectator here, but with that comes the value of some objectivity. Britain's airspace is probed by Russian aircraft on a near daily basis, granted we don't have a war next door threatening to spill over our borders. Will this be the start of a third world war? Unlikely, but there is a great deal to be said for restraint. Particularly when the guys you just shot down work for the country with the largest nuclear arsenal on the planet.

Just saying.

Anyway thanks for reading.

wheelchairman2

The blog today

Hey readers,

I know I still don't update this repository for my thoughts anywhere near as often as I should and I apologise for that. This isn't really part of the usual material that I would post on here but it is an update of sorts.

Originally this blog was supposed to be a place wherein I would complain about things I didn't like in the media, or in real life (i.e. personal experiences I have had a la my 'famous' post 'On the Buses') but upon reflection I realise it's evolved somewhat since that original oh so lofty vision coalesced into this... prose dump. 

Everything I write on here is my opinion, it is my interpretation of world events through my somewhat jaundiced, but grounded (at least I like to think it is) perspective, while I still intend to use this space to write about any humorous occurrences in my day to day, the majority of the content will continue to be my explainers of world events. Why? Because it's often said you should write what you know and I'm damned if I know much about anything else. So I'll stick with that for now.

Please look forward to my next work in which I will be breaking down the reasons as to why conspiracy theories are mostly bollocks.

Cheers as always and thanks for reading,

Wheelchairman2

Ukraine, the invisible ceasefire and the dangers complacency.

Hey readers! (All 5 of you)

So it's been almost a year since I last posted because i'm terrible at keeping promises and schedules, plus I have a job now so that's another excuse. A poor one but an excuse nonetheless. Still, I must admit that recently i've got that bloggy feeling and I just had to start typing.

So what's been making me angry recently? Well the title of this post might give it away I suppose. The ongoing war in Eastern Ukraine has been a cause of endless frustration for me in recent months. Today in the midst of a supposed ceasefire the shelling of areas still inhabited by significant numbers of civilians is continuing.

Why this is a problem

Six days ago after exhaustive talks in Minsk, the capital city of Belarus, a ceasefire agreement was reached between Ukraine and the rebels and Russia, no doubt representing the interests of the 'Russian volunteers' (aka Russian regular army and special forces in insignia free uniforms). There were 12 points to this agreement, first and foremost of which being an 'Imediate and full bilateral ceasefire' to take effect at midnight on the 15th of February local time. Guess what though, that didn't happen, instead fierce fighting has continued resulting today in the withdrawal of Ukranian troops from the town of Debaltseve after sustaining at least 22 fatal casualties and over 100 wounded. These rebel movements are in clear violation of the Minsk accords and yet there has been virtually nothing more than rhetoric from western powers in response to it. Why? Well as mentioned in my previous post about the Ukranian situation, the western powers are pretty terrified of this escalating. What could we do? Arm the Ukranians? Sure, but that might be considered as an act of war by some in the Kremlin which could have some very nasty consequences indeed. Except Russia isn't supposed to be directly involved in Ukraine so why would they care? Except they are, so of course they do. So for now western military aid is restricted to the non lethal kind. Brtain for example, was kind enough to send the Ukranian army a whole bunch of Saxon armoured cars recently, the result of a deal that admittedly predates the so called 'War in Donbass' but even so, those things aren't exactly going to turn the tide against the Russian 76th Airbone Division, 36th Airborne Brigade or the 18th Mechanised Brigade etc (all of which are definitely not in Eastern Ukraine.)

'Definitely not Russian' soldiers in Crimea last year

So... What does this all mean?

 It means that the war is going to continue unabated, it means that Russia is going to continue stomping all over a neighbour's soveriegn territory with impunity, it means more people on both sides are going to die and it means that it's probably going to get worse. We know Russia is involved in Ukraine, they know we know that, but staring down the country with the world's largest nuclear arsenal isn't an easy thing to do. European military spending is at an all time low, the public's appetite for war is nonexsistent and to top it all off Russia hasn't been fighting a seemingly endless guerilla war against radical islamists across the Middle East, South Asia and East Africa, they've only had to do it in Chechnya. Also they've increased their military spending for 2015 by US$20 billion, bringing it up to $81 billion it's highest level of publically declared spending since the end of the Cold War.

NATO has made moves to counter increased Russian aggression in the region, stepping up air patrols in now allied former Warsaw pact states like Estonia and Lithuania and creating a new rapid reaction force to be based in the region. But despite these shifts in posture it must be stressed; an actual physical response is highly unlikely. The collapse of the oil price and increased sanctions against Russia are slowly undermining the Russian economy but Putin and the Kremlin has something of an iron grip on the nation and its feelings. If anything such actions may only provide fuel for the nationalistic fervour that currently enraptures Moscow.

What does Putin want?

Well i'm not the man's shrink so I don't have access to his innermost thoughts and desires, but my take on the situation is that he wants to reclaim at least some of the Soviet Union's lost territory and more importantly, prestege. The USSR, with the SFSR (Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic) at its heart, was once feared and respected, with allies and influence. Being part of the KGB old guard old Vladimir misses those days no doubt and what better time to make a push than when political will in Europe is at low ebb? When the might of NATO has other priorities? When the populations of our democracies are more concerned with spending on welfare and job programmes than security? Our politicians know this too, there are no votes in foreign policy and certainly none in defence. This isn't the sixties, or even the eighties, there are no conventional threats to contend with anymore, who cares what happens in Ukraine right? Well that's all well and good until your airliner gets shot down, or a Russian long range bomber violates sovereign airspace and someone makes a miscalculation. Wars are messy things, they tend to spill over and when they do, it's not a case of grabbing a cloth and cleaning up.

That's not a friendly bear

I can't pretend to have a solution to this mess, I wish I did. I have wishes, hopes perhaps, a broad increase in European military spending and re-deployment of NATO assets to the alliances' frontiers would be nice. My fear is that by the time something is done, it will be far too little, far too late.

Only time will tell.

Thanks for reading,

Wheelchairman2