Ukraine, the invisible ceasefire and the dangers complacency.

Hey readers! (All 5 of you)

So it's been almost a year since I last posted because i'm terrible at keeping promises and schedules, plus I have a job now so that's another excuse. A poor one but an excuse nonetheless. Still, I must admit that recently i've got that bloggy feeling and I just had to start typing.

So what's been making me angry recently? Well the title of this post might give it away I suppose. The ongoing war in Eastern Ukraine has been a cause of endless frustration for me in recent months. Today in the midst of a supposed ceasefire the shelling of areas still inhabited by significant numbers of civilians is continuing.

Why this is a problem

Six days ago after exhaustive talks in Minsk, the capital city of Belarus, a ceasefire agreement was reached between Ukraine and the rebels and Russia, no doubt representing the interests of the 'Russian volunteers' (aka Russian regular army and special forces in insignia free uniforms). There were 12 points to this agreement, first and foremost of which being an 'Imediate and full bilateral ceasefire' to take effect at midnight on the 15th of February local time. Guess what though, that didn't happen, instead fierce fighting has continued resulting today in the withdrawal of Ukranian troops from the town of Debaltseve after sustaining at least 22 fatal casualties and over 100 wounded. These rebel movements are in clear violation of the Minsk accords and yet there has been virtually nothing more than rhetoric from western powers in response to it. Why? Well as mentioned in my previous post about the Ukranian situation, the western powers are pretty terrified of this escalating. What could we do? Arm the Ukranians? Sure, but that might be considered as an act of war by some in the Kremlin which could have some very nasty consequences indeed. Except Russia isn't supposed to be directly involved in Ukraine so why would they care? Except they are, so of course they do. So for now western military aid is restricted to the non lethal kind. Brtain for example, was kind enough to send the Ukranian army a whole bunch of Saxon armoured cars recently, the result of a deal that admittedly predates the so called 'War in Donbass' but even so, those things aren't exactly going to turn the tide against the Russian 76th Airbone Division, 36th Airborne Brigade or the 18th Mechanised Brigade etc (all of which are definitely not in Eastern Ukraine.)

'Definitely not Russian' soldiers in Crimea last year

So... What does this all mean?

 It means that the war is going to continue unabated, it means that Russia is going to continue stomping all over a neighbour's soveriegn territory with impunity, it means more people on both sides are going to die and it means that it's probably going to get worse. We know Russia is involved in Ukraine, they know we know that, but staring down the country with the world's largest nuclear arsenal isn't an easy thing to do. European military spending is at an all time low, the public's appetite for war is nonexsistent and to top it all off Russia hasn't been fighting a seemingly endless guerilla war against radical islamists across the Middle East, South Asia and East Africa, they've only had to do it in Chechnya. Also they've increased their military spending for 2015 by US$20 billion, bringing it up to $81 billion it's highest level of publically declared spending since the end of the Cold War.

NATO has made moves to counter increased Russian aggression in the region, stepping up air patrols in now allied former Warsaw pact states like Estonia and Lithuania and creating a new rapid reaction force to be based in the region. But despite these shifts in posture it must be stressed; an actual physical response is highly unlikely. The collapse of the oil price and increased sanctions against Russia are slowly undermining the Russian economy but Putin and the Kremlin has something of an iron grip on the nation and its feelings. If anything such actions may only provide fuel for the nationalistic fervour that currently enraptures Moscow.

What does Putin want?

Well i'm not the man's shrink so I don't have access to his innermost thoughts and desires, but my take on the situation is that he wants to reclaim at least some of the Soviet Union's lost territory and more importantly, prestege. The USSR, with the SFSR (Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic) at its heart, was once feared and respected, with allies and influence. Being part of the KGB old guard old Vladimir misses those days no doubt and what better time to make a push than when political will in Europe is at low ebb? When the might of NATO has other priorities? When the populations of our democracies are more concerned with spending on welfare and job programmes than security? Our politicians know this too, there are no votes in foreign policy and certainly none in defence. This isn't the sixties, or even the eighties, there are no conventional threats to contend with anymore, who cares what happens in Ukraine right? Well that's all well and good until your airliner gets shot down, or a Russian long range bomber violates sovereign airspace and someone makes a miscalculation. Wars are messy things, they tend to spill over and when they do, it's not a case of grabbing a cloth and cleaning up.

That's not a friendly bear

I can't pretend to have a solution to this mess, I wish I did. I have wishes, hopes perhaps, a broad increase in European military spending and re-deployment of NATO assets to the alliances' frontiers would be nice. My fear is that by the time something is done, it will be far too little, far too late.

Only time will tell.

Thanks for reading,

Wheelchairman2