Hey readers!
So some of you may have recently heard about some nasty goings on in northern Iraq involving an organisation known as Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. Confusingly acronym-ed as ISIS. (Because technically it stands for Islamic State in Iraq and Al-Sham or occasionally Syria.) This particular group of individuals have swept across many of the northern cities of Iraq apparently uncontested with Iraqi forces fleeing, surrendering or defecting in droves.
Anyway, in the media lately there has been extensive coverage of this, as well as a heck of a lot of blame being tossed around the place. It's Bush's fault! It's Blair's fault! Iraq 2003! Etc etc etc. The reality of the situation is, unsurprisingly enough, somewhat more complicated than that. While yes, 11 years ago the US, the UK, and many partner nations did end up invading Iraq and in the process dismantled local security forces, over the next 8 years coalition forces spent a great deal of time, effort and money rebuilding those forces. Equipping the new Iraqi army with refurbished armoured vehicles, new small arms and personal protective gear. As well as a new officer candidate school based around the British Sandhurst system. What all of these preparations couldn't account for though, was the sheer depth of corruption within the Iraqi establishment and an extremely bloody civil war erupting just over Iraq's northern border.
What ISIS have done is quite remarkable, they saw an opportunity and seized it. To use an American turn of phrase the Iraqi security forces were caught with their pants down. Efforts to mount an offensive to retake the captured areas are now in the early phases with the bulk of the forces involved being Iraqi troops and Shia (or Shi'ite depending on how you choose to spell it) militia. (ISIS is a Sunni organisation) the United States may be providing air support and forward observer teams to direct the strikes (although not quite yet, the White House is dithering slightly, but there is a carrier group sitting ready and waiting) and the Iranian Quds force (Republican Guard Special Forces) has committed 2,000 of its members to the cause as well! Yes you read that right. The most hard line defenders of the Islamic Republic of Iran may well end up fighting alongside Iraqi troops and American advisors against a terrorist organisation. The UK has even made steps to re-open it's embassy in Tehran, never underestimate the ability of a crisis to bring former foes together. No one ever said that playing 'The Great Game' wasn't cynical...
This whole situation is a mess, it came as a complete surprise to everyone, the response has been as confused and frantic as any I've ever seen. The usual platitudes of condemnation have emerged form the expected sources. But what is surprising is the shock and anger behind many of them. The UN has even evacuated much of it's staff to Jordan out of concern and even went as far to appeal for 'Iraqi unity' in the face of the crisis. Given the prevalent sectarian and tribal divides the beset the country that's a grand statement to make.
I apologise for the somewhat sloppy nature of this post but currently the situation is really this confused. Until further details emerge and more definite action is taken there's not a great deal of analysis I can offer. Point of fact however is that the blame for this cannot solely, or even largely be placed at the feet of the 2003 invasion and subsequent occupation. There are far too many factors and moving parts for it to be broken down that simplistically.
One thing is certain though, you can always count on the Middle East to cause headaches for everyone who works, or is even remotely interested in international security.
Thanks for reading.
Wheelchairman2
No comments:
Post a Comment